Overview
- A Potsdam Institute–led analysis published in Geophysical Research Letters reports an average warming rate near 0.35°C per decade since 2015, up from just under 0.2°C per decade between 1970 and 2015.
- Researchers removed known natural influences including El Niño, volcanic aerosols, and solar cycles, yet still found a clear, statistically significant acceleration.
- The acceleration appears consistently across five major global temperature records maintained by NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, and ERA5, with a probability above 98% that it is real.
- Signs of the faster warming emerged around 2013–2014, and the recent rate is higher than in any decade since instrumental records began in 1880, according to co-author Grant Foster.
- The paper measures the acceleration rather than attributing specific causes, and the authors say the future pace depends on how quickly global carbon dioxide emissions are reduced.