Overview
- A peer-reviewed paper in Science reports that U.S. Forest Service fuel treatments reduced fire spread and severity and returned about $3.73 in avoided damage for every $1 spent.
- Researchers analyzed 285 wildfires that burned into treated areas across 11 Western states from 2017 to 2023 to compare outcomes with similar fires without treatments.
- The study estimates $2.7 to $2.8 billion in avoided harm, including more than 4,000 buildings saved, 59 fewer premature deaths from smoke, and 2.7 million tons less CO2 released.
- Larger projects over roughly 2,400 acres were the most cost‑effective, and prescribed burning worked better than mechanical thinning alone at slowing spread.
- Experts note key limits, including uncounted smoke and CO2 from intentional burns and uncertainty in putting dollar values on ecological goods, as the Forest Service reports treating about 1 million fewer acres in 2025.