Overview
- Peer-reviewed research in the Royal Society journal Interface identifies a transmission window of roughly 14–32°C with an optimum near 26°C.
- The lowered threshold expands the seasonal window, with broad July–August suitability across Europe and May–November in southern regions.
- Highest projected risk includes Albania, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain and Portugal, while Germany and Austria are categorized as medium risk.
- ECDC reports 27 chikungunya outbreaks in Europe by August last year, and study authors estimate Aedes-borne infections have been rising about 25% annually.
- Local transmission has been documented in Italy, France and Spain; the vector is established in parts of Germany but no locally acquired case there has been confirmed, and limited vaccine availability keeps control focused on surveillance and bite prevention.