Overview
- Researchers led by Dmitrii Kriukov published an organ-level mathematical model in npj Aging that estimates median human lifespan would reach about 146 to 194 years if every aging hallmark except somatic DNA mutations were eliminated.
- The team simulated how random somatic mutations accumulate in different organs and then combined organ models to calculate population survival under a mutation-driven aging scenario.
- The model finds that long-lived, largely nonreplicating cells in the brain and heart accumulate damage that imposes the strictest limits on function and therefore on lifespan.
- Authors warn the results are theoretical and sensitive to assumptions about mutation rates, organ interactions, and how organ failure translates to death, so the study is not experimental proof.
- By quantifying the isolated effect of somatic mutations, the work aims to help prioritize which biological processes to target in efforts to slow aging and to show that other hallmarks also significantly limit current human lifespan.