Overview
- The National Bureau of Economic Research working paper by Caitlin K. Myers and Ezekiel Hooper, published Monday, estimates that iPhone diffusion explains about 33 to 52 percent of the U.S. fertility decline during 2007–2011.
- The paper uses AT&T’s 2007–2011 exclusivity and county‑level AT&T coverage as a natural experiment, finding birth reductions of roughly 4.5–8.0 percent for ages 15–19 and 3.2–6.6 percent for ages 20–24 in places with early iPhone access.
- Authors point to specific mechanisms supported by survey data: reduced in‑person socializing, lower sexual frequency, increased on‑demand adult content use, and easier online access to contraception and abortion information.
- An independent University of Cincinnati study using World Bank data on 128 countries finds parallel timing worldwide, describing smartphone penetration as a common technology shock that accelerated teen fertility declines.
- Economists and commentators caution that the results are not settled because of possible nonrandom AT&T rollout, preexisting downward trends, and other drivers like the 2008 recession, education, housing costs, and contraception; further replication and scrutiny are under way.