Overview
- Global markets repriced risk after Friday’s U.S. payrolls showed about 162,000 jobs added, which raised market‑implied odds of a Fed rate rise in mid‑September to roughly the high‑50s percent.
- Over the weekend the U.S. struck Iranian tankers and Iran’s IRGC fired missiles at U.S. ships, and Tehran said it will set a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz, which lifted the geopolitical premium on crude.
- Brent and WTI climbed roughly 8–10% over the week and traded near $96–97 a barrel, driving diesel to record levels and adding a clear upside risk to near‑term consumer inflation.
- Higher oil and the stronger payrolls pushed global government bond yields toward multi‑year highs, increasing volatility in equities and prompting foreign investors to sell emerging‑market assets such as Indian stocks.
- The decisive next test is this week’s U.S. August CPI release, which market participants say will determine whether the Fed moves on September 16 and how far yields and risk assets move next.