Overview
- Citigroup moved its expected start of Federal Reserve rate cuts from June to September 2026 and still projects three quarter-point moves in September, October, and December.
- The shift followed a March payroll gain of 178,000 and a 4.3% jobless rate, plus an upward revision to February’s hiring.
- Analysts noted temporary boosts from the end of a healthcare strike and warmer weather in the March data.
- Investors expect the Fed to leave its key rate at 3.50%–3.75% at this week’s meeting and to stress a data-dependent path.
- JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warned that the U.S.-Iran conflict could trigger oil and supply shocks that keep inflation and borrowing costs higher than markets now assume.