Overview
- The 2026 season is running behind schedule after only one named storm formed in the first month, leaving the basin unusually quiet.
- The National Hurricane Center expects no tropical development in its seven‑day forecast and forecasters see limited activity through much of July.
- NOAA and Colorado State University project a below‑ to near‑average season in their seasonal outlooks, with lower totals driven by suppressed development.
- The Climate Prediction Center reports roughly an 80% chance of below‑average rainfall in the Main Development Region, and analysts cite stronger upper‑level wind shear, Saharan dust and cooler sea surface temperatures as the main suppressors.
- Forecasters caution that a quieter season does not rule out landfalling storms and say waters in the Northern Gulf and off the U.S. Southeast coast remain comparatively more favorable and should be watched closely.