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11h ago

Strengthening El Niño and Record-Warm Oceans Raise Odds of New Global Heat Records

A very strong Pacific El Niño could release stored ocean heat and push global temperatures higher this winter and into 2027.

FILE - Usually submerged areas of the Danube River are exposed amid a drought in Rasova, Romania, Monday, Aug. 3 2026. (AP Photo/ Vadim Ghirda, File)
FILE - Firefighters approach towering flames on Mount Kithairon near Porto Germeno, northwest of Athens, Greece, Aug. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris, File)
Climate researchers say rising global temperatures, expanding marine heat waves and increasingly severe wildfires highlight the growing influence of human-caused climate change, with El Niño expected to add even more heat later this year. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez, File)
FILE - Tourists take shelter as they walk in front of the Rome'a ancient Colosseum, Aug. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino, File)

Overview

  • Scientists report that ocean heat and marine heat waves are at record or near-record levels, with Copernicus estimating about 82% of the world’s ocean surface affected this year.
  • Citing recent model runs, forecasters now project a very strong El Niño for October–December, and this surge of Pacific warmth could amplify global temperatures several months after peak sea-surface warming.
  • Analysts including Zeke Hausfather have raised the chance that 2026 could overtake 2024 as the hottest year, with some estimates near 35% as forecasts intensify.
  • Researchers stress that the extreme heat and wildfires seen in summer 2026 are primarily driven by long-term human-caused warming, while El Niño will add extra heat on top of that baseline.
  • The most likely near-term impacts include more intense heat waves, hotter nights that raise health risks, greater wildfire danger, and a strong possibility that 2027 will set a new modern temperature record.