Overview
- The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have gained roughly 14%, 16%, and 20% from Jan. 20, 2025 through Feb. 2, 2026.
- All three major U.S. indexes have notched several record-closing highs during this stretch.
- The Shiller CAPE hovered between 39 and 41 in January, well above its long-run average near 17.3.
- Historically, CAPE readings above 30 have preceded eventual declines of 20% to 89% in one or more major indexes.
- Lower corporate tax rates and a Federal Reserve rate-easing cycle have supported the rally, though no data set can predict short-term direction.