Overview
- President Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon on Thursday, a move that helped push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record closes.
- US–Iran talks were reported to have collapsed in Islamabad, and Trump’s claim that Iran agreed to abandon its nuclear ambitions has not been confirmed by Tehran.
- With the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed, Gulf exporters are rerouting crude through pipelines and overland paths, and oil settled near $95 for WTI and $99 for Brent following Thursday’s trade.
- Bitcoin hovered near $75,000 after roughly $600 million flowed into US spot ETFs over two sessions, yet sellers capped gains near $76,000 as derivatives activity and profit-taking kicked in.
- Prediction markets now price a short Israel–Lebanon truce as likely, a near-term US–Iran deal as unlikely before late April, and a later reopening of Hormuz as more probable, reflecting the strait’s role in moving about one-fifth of global seaborne oil.