Overview
- The Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act was introduced June 18 by Rep. Bryan Steil and would bar members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from placing wagers on prediction markets tied to government policy, actions, or political outcomes.
- The proposal would attach to H.R.7008, the Stop Insider Trading Act, and imposes penalties of $2,000 or 10% of a prohibited transaction plus forfeiture of any profits for violations.
- The bill exempts nonpolitical contracts such as sports markets and forbids using official accounts or campaign funds to pay fines with unpaid penalties subject to referral to the Justice Department for civil enforcement.
- Lawmakers opened probes after blockchain analysts flagged suspicious, profit-making trades on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, and the Senate already changed its rules in April to ban senators and staff from prediction-market wagering.
- The industry faces uneven regulation that affects enforcement: Kalshi is CFTC-regulated while Polymarket uses stablecoins and limited identity checks, so platforms are tightening controls and the law’s final reach will depend on committee action, a House floor vote, and Senate agreement.