State-Targeted Signup Bonuses Push Rapid Liquidity Into MLB Prediction Markets

Overview

• Polymarket rolled out the referral code OREGON that gives new users $20 in bonus trading funds after a $10 first deposit, requires the code to be entered at signup, and has removed its app waitlist so credited funds can appear in accounts immediately.
• Kalshi activated the code OREGONLIVE1 that awards a randomized bonus from $15 up to $500 only after a new user completes $25 in trades within 30 days and passes identity verification, and the company operates as a CFTC‑regulated exchange.
• Kalshi’s Mariners‑Twins markets showed Seattle near a 62% implied chance with more than $512,000 traded when captured, and Polymarket markets for Dodgers and Red Sox games displayed visible live price moves tied to new‑account activity.
• Both offers are limited to lists of eligible states, are distributed through affiliate networks, and include verification, expiration, and playthrough rules that prevent immediate withdrawal of bonus credit and shape how quickly bonus money affects market depth.
• The promotions boost short‑term liquidity and concentrate volume into marquee MLB contracts, which can distort prices and expose new users to rapid losses or expired credits, and the longer run impact depends on KYC enforcement, repeat behavior by bonus recipients, and any regulatory scrutiny.