Overview
- The prime minister said the UK must “go faster” on defence after talks focused on bringing forward the 3% of GDP target, with BBC and POLITICO reporting 2029 is under consideration.
- Downing Street has not announced a decision, and government statements stress ongoing work on what officials call the largest sustained increase since the Cold War.
- The Office for Budget Responsibility puts the additional annual cost of reaching 3% at about £17.3bn by 2029–30, while IFS analysis suggests a net uplift closer to £13–14bn.
- Treasury caution reflects fiscal constraints and the still‑delayed Defence Investment Plan, as service chiefs warn of an estimated £28bn funding gap over the next four years.
- Priorities likely to be protected include the nuclear deterrent, the GCAP fighter programme and AUKUS, which would heighten pressure on the rest of the defence budget; NATO estimates place UK spending at about 2.3% of GDP in 2024.