Overview
- Prime Minister Keir Starmer said British and allied intelligence assess Russia could mount a direct attack on NATO as early as 2030, raising the UK threat level and public alarm.
- Starmer described the current period as the most dangerous of his life and warned of growing state‑backed actions below the threshold of war, naming cyberattacks, airspace violations, incidents in UK waters and threats to undersea communications cables.
- The government will publish a multi‑year defence investment plan before the early July NATO summit that will prioritise drones, autonomous systems and modern military technology to close capability gaps.
- The UK has committed to raising defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 with a planned rise to about 3% after 2029, and senior military leaders have publicly urged faster delivery of the new capabilities.
- Officials say the move responds to risks from Russia’s war in Ukraine and wider regional tensions that strain supply routes and digital infrastructure, and it will shape UK demands at the upcoming NATO summit on burden‑sharing and collective deterrence.