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Starbucks Rally Sets Stage for Earnings Test of Niccol’s Early Turnaround

Investors will gauge whether early sales gains can start to lift profits.

Overview

  • Starbucks shares are up about 18% this year, far ahead of the S&P 500’s roughly 4% gain.
  • CEO Brian Niccol’s push on store upgrades and customer outreach helped lift comparable sales 4% in fiscal Q1 and turned U.S. transactions positive for the first time in eight quarters.
  • Profit pressure persists, with operating margin at 10.1% compared with 11.9% a year earlier.
  • Management skipped quarter-specific guidance but set full-year goals that include comps of at least 3%, adjusted EPS of $2.15 to $2.40, and 600 to 650 net new stores.
  • Wall Street expects about $9.3 billion in quarterly revenue and $0.43 in EPS, a bar that looks high for a stock trading near 82 times earnings.