Overview
- The measure would levy a one-time 5% tax on residents with net worth of at least $1 billion, applied to those living in California on January 1, 2026, due in 2027 and payable over five years with a deferral charge, with most funds directed to public health care and the rest to administration, education and food assistance.
- Researchers at Stanford’s Hoover Institution report that 71% of modeled scenarios yield a negative net present value for the state, averaging –$24.7 billion after accounting for taxpayer departures and lost income-tax revenue.
- The study estimates about $40 billion in wealth-tax collections, while proponents have projected roughly $100 billion under their own modeling.
- The proposal has not qualified for the November 2026 ballot, and backers must submit roughly 875,000 valid voter signatures to secure placement.
- Analysts warn of founder and investor flight, and news reports cite relocations by Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Peter Thiel, Steven Spielberg, Don Hankey and David Sacks, while Gov. Gavin Newsom says he opposes the measure.