Overview
- Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick wrote on Friday that bitcoin’s slide to roughly $59,000 likely marks the cycle low after a sharp institutional-led selloff.
- The bank links part of the ETF outflows to investors selling crypto to free cash for SpaceX’s IPO and says the IPO’s trading debut may ease that specific selling pressure.
- Kendrick quantified recent ETF redemptions at about $5.7 billion since mid-May and noted heavy derivatives liquidations that amplified the plunge from October’s $126,000 peak.
- He set three short-term confirmation signals to watch: renewed purchases by Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR), a return to net-positive daily flows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, and falling international oil prices.
- Standard Chartered keeps a conditional year-end target of $100,000 for bitcoin and about $4,000 for ether, warning the recovery depends on the three signals and broader macro developments such as oil and Treasury yields.