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Spent SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Projected to Hit the Moon on August 5

The forecast, based on extensive telescope tracking, points to a harmless, hard-to-see strike near Einstein crater.

This is the spot where a Falcon 9 upper stage rocket body will collide with the moon on August 5, 2026. The spent rocket will hit the moon at 5,400 mph (8,700 kph). Image via Bill Gray. Used with permission.
© SpaceX
SpaceX Rocket Debris Is Set To Collide With The Moon On August 5, 2026, Hitting The Rim Of Einstein’s Crater
Image

Overview

  • Bill Gray, whose Project Pluto software is widely used, published a new analysis Wednesday that predicts a 06:44 UTC impact on August 5 on the Moon’s near side.
  • Astronomers are highly confident the object is the Falcon 9 upper stage from the January 15, 2025 launch that carried Firefly’s Blue Ghost and ispace’s Hakuto‑R Resilience lunar landers.
  • The stage is about 13.8 meters long, 3.7 meters wide, and roughly 4,000 kilograms, and it is expected to hit at about 2.43 km/s, creating a crater with no risk to people and little chance of being seen from Earth.
  • Observers have logged 1,053 telescope sightings through February 26, 2026, and analysts say small forces like solar radiation pressure and the stage’s tumbling can still nudge the impact point as tracking refines the solution.
  • Analysts call this a rare unplanned lunar impact, echoing a 2022 case involving a Long March upper stage, and NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter could later image the new crater.