Overview
- The Storm Prediction Center upgraded parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes to an Enhanced Risk on Wednesday, July 1, citing the likelihood of scattered severe storms through the day and overnight.
- Multiple active severe thunderstorm and tornado watches cover the Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast, with SPC mesoscale discussions assigning 40–80% probabilities for additional watch issuance in key corridors.
- Ongoing convective clusters and mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) have already produced measured damaging gusts and isolated large hail across Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan.
- Forecasts call for a second, broader round of storms later today as a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet increases lift and shear, making damaging straight-line winds the primary hazard with some very large hail and a few tornadoes possible.
- Local NWS offices and river forecast centers are coordinating on watches and warnings because storm mode and placement can change quickly, posing risks of wind damage, localized flash flooding where storms train, and impacts to homes, power and travel.