Overview
- The NWS Storm Prediction Center issued a string of mesoscale discussions and multiple watches between June 29 and July 2, 2026, with several MDs assigning high probabilities that additional watches would be needed.
- As of early July 2 the SPC was keeping several active severe‑thunderstorm watches and continuing mesoscale coordination while some MDs lowered watch odds where drying or stabilization reduced risk.
- Forecasters have repeatedly emphasized a shift in the dominant hazard from very large hail with discrete supercells to widespread damaging straight‑line winds, with many MDs citing gusts in the 60–90+ mph range and isolated tornadoes possible in favored corridors.
- Observed soundings and meso‑analyses show extreme instability (MLCAPE often in the thousands of J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates, and strong deep‑layer shear near 40–60 kt, a combination that favors long‑lived supercells and rapid upscale into bowing clusters and MCSs.
- Local impacts could include widespread damaging winds, pockets of very large hail, renewed overnight development as clusters move east‑northeast, and a need for downstream watch issuances and close coordination between SPC, local NWS offices, and river forecast centers.