SPC Lowers Watch Odds as West Texas Storms Lose Intensity

Overview

• An evening update noted weakening storms near Midland with only isolated large hail and marginally severe wind gusts possible through about midnight.
• Earlier analysis over the Permian Basin and Texas South Plains cited 45–55 kt deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates supporting large to potentially very large hail, with a brief tornado not ruled out and a 40 percent watch probability.
• Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma saw a more unstable warm sector with MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg, where a few storms were expected to produce hail over 1 inch and strong gusts under a 40 percent watch consideration.
• The Four Corners region carried a modest severe setup with 500–750 J/kg MLCAPE and 40–50 kt mid-level flow, supporting isolated hail up to about 1.25 inches and a few strong winds, with no watch expected at 5 percent.
• The Weather Prediction Center flagged the Texas Big Country for brief training of slow-moving cells producing 1.5–2 inch per hour rates and widely scattered flash flooding potential overnight.