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SPC Issues Texas Severe Watch as Tornado Risk Builds Toward Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama

Strong shear over a southbound front is creating a narrow window for supercells with very large hail.

Overview

  • The NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 185 on Wednesday morning for the Texas Hill Country through 1 p.m. CDT, citing hail up to 2 inches and wind gusts to 70 mph.
  • SPC discussions over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau noted strong instability and 60+ kt winds aloft supporting supercells, with early-morning storms already showing structures capable of large hail and severe outflow.
  • Following Tuesday evening’s setup, SPC issued Tornado Watch 184 for north-central Arkansas through midnight, warning of a few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds as storms formed along a cold front.
  • The Weather Prediction Center reported an isolated flash‑flood threat overnight from central Arkansas into the Memphis area, where training storms along the front could drop 2 to 4 inches of rain in spots.
  • By late Wednesday morning, SPC signaled that a tornado watch will likely be needed later today for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama as daytime heating weakens the cap and storms organize.