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SPC Considers Watches for Conditional Severe Storm Risk Tonight

A volatile air mass could yield isolated supercells despite limited moisture.

Overview

  • The Storm Prediction Center warned Monday night of isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the central Plains into the Midwest with the potential for large hail and damaging winds, and storms should trend weaker toward daybreak with a cooler, showery Tuesday.
  • The setup features steep mid‑level lapse rates and 30–50 kt wind shear that can support organized storms. Limited surface moisture may keep storm coverage spotty.
  • SPC mesoscale discussions placed a 40% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in select corridors, including northeastern Illinois into northwest Ohio and later central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri.
  • Kansas City broadcasters declared an Alert Day with storms favored after about 7–9 p.m., and the main hazards include 1–2 inch hail and 50–60 mph wind gusts.
  • In Oklahoma, forecasters highlighted a marginal risk through the evening with very isolated storms capable of quarter‑size hail and 50–60 mph gusts.