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Spanberger Maintains Edge in Final Virginia Polls as Parties Mobilize and Map Fight Looms

New surveys point to a narrowing but durable advantage for the Democrat as legislative Democrats pursue a constitutional route to new congressional districts.

Overview

  • Fresh polling from CNU shows Abigail Spanberger leading Winsome Earle-Sears 50% to 43%, while a recent Washington PostSchar School survey put the margin at 54% to 42%.
  • Both campaigns intensified their ground efforts across Hampton Roads, with Spanberger bus tour stops and Republican rallies headlined by Earle-Sears and down-ballot GOP candidates.
  • Barack Obama is slated to rally for Spanberger in Norfolk on Nov. 1, adding to a roster of national Democrats who have recently campaigned in the state.
  • The attorney general contest has tightened, with CNU recording Jason Miyares at 46% to Jay Jones’ 45% and other polling showing a tie after Jones’ 2022 violent text messages resurfaced.
  • Democratic lawmakers advanced steps toward a constitutional amendment to enable new congressional redistricting, and Spanberger has said she would not stand in the way of the legislature’s process.