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Spain’s Housing Boom Points to Slower 2026 After Near-Record 2025

Tight supply plus revived mortgage lending set the tone for a year many researchers say will extend the expansion at a slower clip.

Overview

  • Official and market data show 2025 closed with steep gains in Spain, with purchase prices up about 9.5% year over year to September and rents near 13% higher.
  • More than 600,000 home sales were recorded from January to October and full‑year transactions are expected to top 700,000, likely the second highest since 2007.
  • Analysts forecast continued increases in 2026 at milder rates, with CaixaBank Research estimating sale prices could rise a little over 6% as the cycle matures.
  • Supply remains tight, with about 150,000 housing permits projected in 2026 versus roughly 140,000 in 2025, while second‑hand homes account for around 80% of deals and new builds show the strongest price gains.
  • High‑end districts in Madrid and Barcelona show early stabilization and longer sale times, whereas smaller and tourist markets continue to register firmer advances.