Overview
- Airef, Spain’s independent fiscal authority, now projects 2026 GDP growth of 2.3% and inflation of 3.2%, revising January’s forecast lower for growth and higher for prices.
- The watchdog warns Spain risks breaking national and EU spending caps next year and says closing a gap of 0.6% of GDP would require about €10 billion in measures.
- Airef projects net spending will rise 5.9% in 2026, which exceeds the 3.5% path set in Spain’s EU-endorsed medium‑term fiscal plan.
- The deficit forecast has been raised to 2.6% of GDP for 2026 after extra aid tied to the Iran conflict’s fallout and climate damage in Andalucía and Extremadura.
- The report estimates higher oil and gas costs could knock 0.2 percentage points off growth and add 1 point to inflation, while temporary relief measures lift growth by 0.1 point.