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Spain and Indonesia Move to Block Major Crypto Prediction Platforms

Regulators increasingly treat real‑money prediction markets as illegal gambling, a shift that is shrinking where those platforms can legally operate.

Overview

  • Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs has blocked Polymarket and said it is tracing affiliated social media after a market launched on May 21 asked whether President Prabowo would leave office early.
  • Spain’s gambling regulator ordered ISPs to block Polymarket and Kalshi and opened formal disciplinary proceedings that officials expect to take roughly three to four months.
  • Indian authorities recently classified real‑money prediction markets as prohibited online money gaming and moved to block Polymarket, part of a pattern of restrictions in countries including Brazil, Argentina and others.
  • Regulators cite weak identity checks, poor protections for minors and self‑excluded gamblers, AML and capital‑flow risks, and concentrated profits as the main reasons for enforcement actions.
  • The moves are narrowing markets for Polymarket and Kalshi, feeding ongoing U.S. legal fights and pushing some firms toward regulated paths while users may seek workarounds such as VPNs that limit but do not stop enforcement.