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SpaceX’s Record IPO Faces a Market Test as Volatility, Lockups and Debt Plans Loom

Forced passive buying and a tiny tradable float drove extreme early price swings, leaving upcoming earnings, staggered lockups, a reported $20 billion bond sale, and an all‑stock AI acquisition to determine if the lofty IPO valuation holds.

Overview

  • SpaceX completed the largest IPO on June 12, pricing shares at $135 and raising about $75 billion which rose to roughly $85.7 billion after underwriters exercised an overallotment option.
  • The stock jumped on debut then swung wildly in mid‑June after SpaceX announced a roughly $60 billion all‑stock acquisition of Anysphere (Cursor), with a two‑day slide that wiped about $620 billion of market value.
  • Only about 4–5% of SpaceX’s equity was tradable at listing, and a staggered lockup schedule will materially expand the float—roughly doubling available shares by the end of August and unlocking a larger tranche by the end of October.
  • SpaceX’s filings show a two‑speed business: Starlink was the only profitable segment in 2025 and drove most revenue (the company reported about $18.7 billion for 2025), while xAI and Starship are generating heavy losses and large capital needs.
  • Near‑term tests that will shape price and supply include the company’s first public earnings (expected late July or early August), an initial lockup window that lets some holders sell shares, a reported $20 billion+ bond to refinance xAI bridge debt, and wide analyst disagreement on fair value.