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SpaceX Will Cast Its Own Turbine Blades but Analysts Say Howmet Is Safe for Now

Analysts say specialized foundry know‑how, multi‑year OEM contracts running to about 2030, recent capacity additions with a Q2 beat mean rapid displacement is unlikely.

Overview

  • Elon Musk announced that SpaceX plans to cast industrial gas turbine blades and vanes in‑house to help supply a roughly 20 GW behind‑the‑meter power project for AI data centers in Bastrop, Texas.
  • Investors reacted quickly after the post, sending Howmet Aerospace shares down roughly 7–8% before the stock partially recovered as market participants parsed the announcement.
  • Multiple sell‑side firms, led by Bernstein, pushed back within days and kept Outperform/Buy ratings while raising price targets, calling the selloff a buying opportunity rather than a signal of near‑term loss of market share.
  • Analysts note major technical and scale‑up hurdles for blade casting—specialized foundries, proprietary high‑temperature alloys and coating processes take years to master—so SpaceX’s 18‑month timeline is viewed as ambitious.
  • Howmet’s recent strength bolsters its position: a Q2 earnings beat, guidance, new capacity coming online and reported long‑term supply contracts with turbine OEMs through about 2030 reduce the chance of immediate displacement and are key items to watch next.