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SpaceX Stock Slides Back to IPO Levels as Market Prepares for August Lock‑up and Earnings Test

Forced index buying, big debt offerings and reported AI compute deals have left trading volatile and put early August’s earnings and first lock‑up expiry at the center of investor scrutiny.

Overview

  • SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135 per share, opened at $150, rallied to an intraday high near $225 on June 16 and has since fallen about 35% to trade around $140–$150.
  • The IPO priced a valuation near $1.75 trillion on 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion, while the company reported a $4.94 billion net loss for 2025 and Starlink accounted for roughly 60% of sales.
  • Corporate moves since the debut include a $60 billion all‑stock acquisition of Cursor, large notes offerings to raise about $20–25 billion, and reported multi‑billion AI compute deals with Alphabet and Anthropic that analysts say could materially change revenue if realized.
  • Market structure has amplified volatility because only about 4–5% of equity was tradable at IPO, index additions forced passive buying, and a staggered lock‑up schedule will make roughly 911.5 million shares eligible for sale around the company’s first public earnings in early August.
  • Analysts are broadly positive but deeply split on valuation, producing a Moderate Buy consensus with wide price targets that range from about $115 to several hundred dollars, making the August earnings and lock‑up window the key near‑term test of investor conviction.