SpaceX Stock Rebounds but Faces Funding and Supply Risks

Overview

• Shares have climbed back to about $148 after a recent rally, leaving the stock roughly 34% below its late‑June IPO peak and about 18% higher than it was a month earlier.
• SpaceX reported strong Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion with EPS of -$0.09 that beat estimates and a narrowed net loss of about $541 million.
• The company disclosed extraordinary quarterly capital spending of roughly $18.4 billion, including about $15.8 billion on AI infrastructure, which has pushed free cash flow negative and raised investor concern about financing and execution.
• Some institutional investors have opened or increased positions, including Bond Capital, and analysts remain split but set a median 12‑month target near $216 that implies upside from current levels.
• Near‑term volatility will hinge on a September 9 share unlock that could add selling pressure and on operational catalysts such as an expected Starship test, while longer‑term upside depends on sizable AI compute deals and Starlink revenue growth.