Particle.news
Download on the App Store

SpaceX Stock Near $140 Faces Lockup Test After Bearish $75 Call

A top analyst says the company’s rapid AI revenue growth may not rest on long-term contracts and that could leave the stock’s lofty valuation exposed.

Overview

  • SpaceX reported strong Q2 results on Aug. 4 with $7.8 billion in revenue and AI sales up about 247% year over year, driven by initial cloud-service deals that generated roughly $1.6 billion.
  • Institutional disclosures show concentrated ownership, with Alphabet and Nvidia reporting very large stakes that together represent a major portion of the small public float.
  • Phillip Securities analyst Glenn Thum reiterated a Sell and set a $75 price target, arguing many AI agreements are monthly with short exit windows and one customer supplied about 19.5% of Q2 sales.
  • A staggered lockup schedule is still releasing shares, with roughly 320 million restricted units set to become transferable on Aug. 20, a near-term supply event that could increase price volatility.
  • Investors are watching whether cloud deals convert into multi-year contracts and whether sustained very large capital spending will require further funding, because those outcomes will determine if current rich valuation multiples are justified.