Overview
- On Saturday, SpaceX shares were trading near $110–$118, roughly half below their mid‑June high and about 13–16% below the $135 IPO price.
- Seeking Alpha upgraded SPCX to a buy after a roughly 50–51% peak‑to‑trough decline, citing historical IPO drawdown patterns and technical support zones near $111 and $102.
- A large staged lockup schedule will free a major unconditional tranche of about 911.5 million shares two trading days after the company’s first public quarterly report, which SpaceX confirmed will be released after markets close on Aug. 4.
- Short interest and options activity have surged, with one data provider estimating about 206 million shares shorted—roughly $25 billion in notional bets—which raises the chance of sharp moves if supply or results surprise the market.
- Recent Starship engine failures and the company’s recent debt raises add execution and financing risks that, together with the tiny initial float and fast index‑tracker inflows, make near‑term price swings and elevated implied volatility more likely.