Overview
- SpaceX shares trade in the low $120s as of July 21, down roughly 40–45% from the mid‑June post‑IPO high and back below the $135 offering price.
- The stock drop intensified after SpaceX aborted Falcon 9 and Starship launches for engine failures, and the company rescheduled a Starship test for July 23.
- Market mechanics have amplified moves because the IPO left only about 4–5% of shares freely tradable, index fast‑tracks forced ETF buying early on, and reported short interest sits near 17 percent of the float.
- Fundamentals show Starlink as the main profit driver with about $11.4 billion of 2025 revenue while the AI and space units have posted large operating losses and the company has sold notes to fund further AI and Starship work.
- Investors face two near‑term tests that will shape liquidity and sentiment: the July 23 Starship flight and the company’s Q2 earnings release in early August that triggers staged lockup releases that could add hundreds of millions of shares to the market.