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SpaceX Shares Flat Since IPO as Lockup Releases and AI Bet Divide Wall Street

Investor debate over AI-led growth versus near-term cash burn is driving wide analyst disagreement.

Overview

  • SpaceX completed its record IPO on June 12, 2026, and the stock has traded roughly flat versus its first-day close after extreme swings that pushed the price as high as about $211 and as low as roughly $108.
  • The company reported strong revenue growth in its first public quarter with Q2 revenue rising 92% to $7.8 billion while net losses narrowed to $541 million, showing accelerating sales but heavy spending.
  • Analyst coverage is broadly positive but highly split with 34 analysts tracked, 26 buys and price targets that range from about $117 to an outlier $450, reflecting sharply different views on AI scale and execution risks.
  • A calendar of staged insider and early-investor lockup expirations has released and will release hundreds of millions to billions of shares through December, creating a recurring supply catalyst that has influenced short-term volatility.
  • Starlink remains SpaceX’s main profit engine today while management positions AI and the xAI acquisition as the long-term growth driver, a strategy that explains large quarterly capex and raises near-term cash‑burn and execution risk for investors.