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SpaceX Shares Fall Back to IPO Levels After Post‑IPO Surge

The retreat raises the stakes for early‑August earnings, staged insider lockup eligibility and reported AI contracts to determine whether index inflows or new selling will drive the stock next.

Overview

  • SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 in mid‑June, rallied to about $225 within days and has since dropped roughly 35–40 percent to trade near the IPO price.
  • The Nasdaq‑100 added SpaceX on July 7, forcing index funds to buy shares, but those mechanical inflows have not offset profit‑taking and other selling pressure.
  • A tiered lockup schedule makes progressively larger insider blocks eligible to trade after the company’s first public quarterly report, which is expected in early August and could materially increase share supply.
  • The market is divided because public valuation now sits near the high‑trillions while SpaceX reported $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue, a roughly $4.9 billion net loss, Starlink supplies about 60 percent of sales and reported AI‑compute deals remain unproven.
  • SpaceX has pursued large AI M&A and sold about $20–25 billion in notes to fund growth, and the stock’s near‑term path will affect retail holders, ETF flows and the company’s ability to use its stock for future acquisitions.