Overview
- SpaceX’s stock has plunged roughly 40–50% from its mid‑June peak and now trades modestly below its IPO level as investor enthusiasm cooled and selling accelerated.
- Alphabet disclosed on July 24 that it holds about $94.1 billion of SpaceX stock with roughly $80 billion subject to near‑term lockups, a fact that shrinks the tradable float now but creates a future source of supply.
- Short interest has surged to around 30–32% of the public float, which S3 Partners estimates equals roughly $25 billion in notional bearish bets and raises both downward pressure and squeeze risk.
- Major banks and analysts have grown cautious with HSBC initiating coverage at a hold and a $115 target while Morgan Stanley and others warn SpaceX’s AI unit faces steep capital needs and uncertain economics.
- Near‑term market mechanics — a tiny public float, fast Nasdaq‑100 inclusion, $25 billion of recent note sales, heavy AI and Starship spending and the Aug. 4 earnings/Aug. 6 lockup schedule — create a binary test that will determine whether the stock stabilizes or faces further selling.