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SpaceX Rebounds After Buy Upgrade as Early Lockup Fails to Trigger Mass Selling

A high-profile analyst upgrade and a muted initial lockup eased near-term selling pressure while questions over the returns from massive AI spending remain.

Overview

  • Argus Research upgraded SpaceX to Buy on Friday, driving a roughly 13% intraday jump after the firm said the company’s AI investment could pay back in under a year.
  • SpaceX’s first public quarter showed strong top‑line growth with $7.8 billion in revenue and adjusted EBITDA of about $3.5 billion, led by a 247% year‑over‑year rise in AI segment revenue.
  • The company reported roughly $18.4 billion in second‑quarter capital spending, with about $15.8 billion tied to AI infrastructure and management saying some compute spending is returning cash in under 12 months.
  • Roughly 911.5 million previously locked shares became eligible to trade on Aug. 6 but did not produce a wave of insider selling, a development that reduced near‑term technical pressure on the stock.
  • Despite $100 billion in cash, a $47.5 billion backlog and $14.1 billion of Q2 cloud contracts plus an additional $6.7 billion reported in early Q3, the stock faces material risks from more scheduled share unlocks, high short interest, and execution of its AI and Starship programs.