Overview
- The upper stage left in a high, moon‑crossing orbit after a January 15, 2025 launch is predicted to impact the lunar surface on Wednesday, August 5 at about 2:35 a.m. EDT.
- Trackers led by Bill Gray estimate the object will strike near Einstein Crater at roughly 5,400 mph, releasing energy comparable to three tons of TNT and carving a crater about 27 meters wide.
- NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri are positioned to take before‑and‑after images and Danuri will pass close to the stage minutes before impact to record the event.
- SpaceX says the impact was not planned and that solar radiation pressure plus Earth‑Moon gravitational perturbations slowly altered the stage’s trajectory after mission completion.
- Scientists view the event as a controlled scientific opportunity to test ejecta and crater models and as a warning about rising cislunar debris that may require clearer disposal standards and traffic management.