Overview
- The Falcon 9 second stage that launched Jan. 15, 2025, is predicted to strike the Moon on Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026, at around 00:35 Mexico City time.
- The object is about 12 meters long and an estimated 4,000 kilograms, will hit at roughly 2.43 kilometers per second, and will release energy comparable to about three tonnes of TNT producing a 20–30 meter crater.
- NASA and tracking centers have confirmed the trajectory, say the impact poses no danger to Earth, and have tasked the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and partners such as South Korea’s Danuri to image the site before and after the strike.
- Researchers view the event as a rare test case because the stage’s mass, speed and angle are known, which will let scientists compare real observations of the flash, ejecta plume and crater to existing impact models.
- The episode has renewed calls for clearer rules on disposal of high-energy lunar stages and better monitoring of debris because similar impacts could threaten future surface habitats and missions.