Overview
- A spent Falcon 9 second stage that launched on Jan. 15, 2025 is now tracked on a collision course with the Moon and is predicted to impact on Aug. 5, 2026 near 19.455°N, 266.406°E by Einstein and Bell craters.
- Modelers say the hollow rocket stage should carve a fresh crater and launch an ejecta plume that may be briefly visible to powerful ground and space telescopes, though brightness and exact plume behavior remain uncertain.
- NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter is scheduled to image the site about seven days before the impact and again about seven days after to help locate the stage and measure surface changes.
- Tracking has been difficult because the object has orbited at lunar distances for more than a year, which makes radar ineffective and forces reliance on optical telescopes; the stage is roughly the height of a five‑storey building.
- Scientists plan to use observations to calibrate impact and plume models and to assess risks to future lunar operations, a process that could prompt tighter guidance on how to dispose of large rocket stages sent beyond Earth orbit.