Overview
- The derelict second stage from a Falcon 9 launched on January 15, 2025, is predicted to strike the Moon on Wednesday, August 5 at about 00:35 Central Mexico time, a moment confirmed by independent trackers and NASA’s CNEOS.
- Researchers estimate the roughly 4,000 kilogram stage will hit near the Einstein crater at about 2.43 kilometers per second, releasing energy comparable to three tons of TNT and making a roughly 20–30 meter wide, 5 meter deep crater.
- Agencies and astronomers have coordinated observations with orbiters such as NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri plus ground telescopes across the Americas to capture pre‑ and post‑impact imagery and any ejecta plume.
- The collision was identified and refined by independent tracker Bill Gray using public data and later confirmed by NASA, providing a rare case where mass, speed and trajectory are well known and can test impact models.
- The event is renewing calls for clearer international rules and better tracking for high‑energy lunar missions because current disposal practices and monitoring beyond low Earth orbit are inconsistent and could threaten future lunar bases and heritage sites.