Overview
- The Falcon 9 second stage is predicted to hit the Moon near Einstein Crater on Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026 at about 2:35 a.m. ET, a trajectory confirmed by independent trackers and NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies.
- The stage was left in lunar‑crossing orbit after a Jan. 15, 2025 launch that sent Firefly’s Blue Ghost and Japan’s ispace Resilience to the Moon, with Blue Ghost later landing and Resilience crashing.
- NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter took pre‑impact images on July 29 and will reimage the site about a week after impact, and Korea’s Danuri spacecraft plans a close pass minutes before the strike to collect additional data.
- Scientists estimate the collision will produce a roughly 20 to 30 meter crater but models disagree sharply on how high and how far ejecta will travel, so observations will test those competing predictions.
- SpaceX says solar radiation pressure plus gravitational perturbations altered the stage’s post‑disposal path, and experts say the episode highlights weak cislunar tracking and disposal rules that could threaten future lunar operations.