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SpaceX Faces First Public Earnings Test as Lockup Threatens to Flood Market

This earnings report will determine whether Starlink profits can cover heavy AI plus Starship spending.

Overview

  • SpaceX will publish its first quarterly results after the bell on Tuesday, and analysts expect roughly $6.9 billion in Q2 revenue with an adjusted loss near $0.24–$0.26 per share.
  • Investors will focus on Starlink because it supplied most of SpaceX's profit last year and is expected to be the single largest revenue contributor in the quarter.
  • A staged insider lockup beginning Aug. 6 could free roughly 900–911 million shares and materially expand the tradable float, which analysts warn could prolong downward pressure on the stock.
  • Recent filings show steep AI infrastructure spending and large bond sales to fund Starship and AI projects, with Visible Alpha projections pointing to sharply higher capex and debt through 2028.
  • Operational execution remains a market driver after mid‑July engine problems and a partly successful Flight 13, and SpaceX has targeted a late August or September window for Flight 14 to attempt the first tower catch of a Starship upper stage.