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SpaceX Beats Q2 Estimates as $18.4 Billion AI Spend Raises Valuation Questions

Quiet lockup selling followed by institutional buying leaves the market focused on whether massive AI capital spending and Starship execution can justify SpaceX’s lofty price.

Overview

  • SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of about $7.8 billion and an adjusted loss of $0.09 per share, topping analyst estimates from the company’s Aug. 4 earnings update.
  • The company disclosed roughly $18.4 billion in Q2 capital expenditures, with about $15.8 billion directed to AI infrastructure, a level of spending that pushed free cash flow deeply negative and alarmed some investors.
  • On Aug. 6 roughly 911 million restricted shares became eligible to trade but did not trigger a broad insider selloff, and the stock rebounded as short covering, retail buying and analyst upgrades lifted prices.
  • Institutional buyers moved in after the lockup event, including a roughly $36.9 million purchase by ARK Invest and fresh analyst upgrades, while additional staged lockup expirations remain scheduled through December.
  • Starlink generated about $4.3 billion in Q2 revenue and 12 million subscribers, making it the company’s profitable core, but near-term valuation now hinges on SpaceX delivering AI monetization, Starship milestones and the ability to fund heavy capex.