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S&P Global Puts 2025 Tariff Tab at $1.2 Trillion, With Most Costs Hitting Consumers

The white paper attributes the price shock to May’s end of the de minimis rule.

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Companies will lose at least $1.2 trillion more this year than they expected before the year began, an S&P Global report says.

Overview

  • S&P estimates roughly two-thirds of the tariff burden will be passed through to buyers, including about $592 billion borne by U.S. households in 2025.
  • Companies are expected to absorb about one-third of the costs, with analyst consensus pointing to a 64 basis point compression in profit margins this year and smaller hits projected in 2026–28.
  • The assessment draws on input from more than 15,000 sell-side analysts covering about 9,000 firms, and S&P characterizes the $1.2 trillion figure as a conservative floor.
  • S&P identifies the removal of the $800 de minimis exemption in May as the inflection point that amplified price increases and disrupted shipping and sourcing.
  • The White House maintains exporters will ultimately bear the costs, while analyses from Goldman Sachs and the St. Louis Fed link the tariffs to higher consumer prices and measurable increases in core inflation.