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S&P 500 Pullback Falls Short of a Correction

History suggests growing profits can cap losses during geopolitical shocks.

Overview

  • The S&P 500 sat about 9% below its record at one point as the war in Iran jolted markets.
  • A 10% drop is widely called a correction and a 20% decline or more is called a bear market.
  • Bear markets most often show up with recessions or shrinking earnings, unlike routine corrections that can happen in good times.
  • Forecasts call for double-digit S&P 500 profit growth over the next two years, which analysts say can limit deeper losses.
  • In 2011 and 2018, earnings kept growing and stocks returned to record highs within months.