Overview
- Chicago soy futures gained about $3.49 to $411.62 per tonne for March shortly after the USDA released its global supply-and-demand estimates.
- USDA pegged Brazil’s soybean harvest at 180 million tonnes and held Argentina at 48.5 million, while leaving U.S. 2025/26 ending stocks unchanged at 9.52 million tonnes.
- Traders are watching for verified Chinese buying after President Donald Trump said China may lift U.S. soy purchases to 20 million tonnes, a political signal not yet backed by reported sales.
- Recent market signals remain mixed, with high Chinese port inventories near 7.7 million tonnes and a previously widened July/November spread hinting at near-term tightness.
- Price moves have been uneven across venues, with Chicago mixed in prior sessions and Rosario’s spot market down ARS 5,000 on Monday to ARS 470,000 per tonne as Brazil’s harvest advances.