Soybean Rally Wobbles After Trump’s China Push as Sales Data Lag

Markets now look to next week’s WASDE for confirmation of the week’s demand signals.

Overview

Futures surged midweek after President Trump said he sought to lift China’s soybean commitments to 20 MMT following a call with President Xi, then pared gains into Friday to finish modestly higher on the day and sharply higher on the week.
USDA reported 436,949 MT of soybeans sold for the week of Jan. 29, below trade expectations, with total commitments at 34.29 MMT, or 80% of USDA’s forecast and 20% behind last year’s pace.
Corn drew spillover strength from soy and a USDA-confirmed 130,480 MT private sale on Wednesday, though weekly sales totaled 1.04 MMT near the low end of estimates, and futures slipped on Friday after earlier gains.
Treasury’s 45Z tax credit guidance supported soybean oil prices and reduced policy uncertainty, with a public hearing on the rules scheduled for May.
Cattle markets swung from a steep Thursday break to a Friday rebound on stronger cash trade, while a strike authorization at JBS’s Greeley, Colorado beef plant was flagged as a developing operational risk.